Friday, 3 July 2015

Polls suggest division even after referendum

Two opinion polls out on Friday show that while most Greeks are committed to the Yes and No camps in Sunday's referendum on further austerity, the numbers are still too close to call.

A poll by the University of Macedonia for Bloomberg put the No vote at 43 percent, versus 42.5 percent for the Yes vote.

An ALCO poll for the national daily Ethnos showed the vote tipping the other way, with 41.5 percent of Greeks in favour of Yes and 40.2 favouring No.

The margin of error for both polls is three percent.

The closeness of the numbers suggests a marginal result that could still leave the country divided on Monday.

High risk voters

Between three quarters (ALCO) and four fifths (Bloomberg) of Greeks want to remain in the Eurozone, and the ALCO polls shows that three out of five Greeks fear that a No vote will endanger that status. Moreover, one on two Greeks doesn't believe a No vote will soften creditors' stance (ALCO). So at least a portion of the No vote is willing to endanger a eurozone status it wants to keep, despite the apparent futility of a No in negotiations.

What does this tell us about the No vote? Perhaps that it is based on complete mistrust that creditors are acting in good faith, and perhaps that this vote is more about an assertion of sovereignty than preservation of wealth. 

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