Sunday, 5 July 2015

Anti-austerity parties ought to win No vote

If January's election is a guide, Greeks will vote No in today's referendum.

Anti-austerity parties hold the majority over pro-austerity parties in terms of the popular vote:

Pro-Austerity (and Pro-Yes)
New Democracy (cons) 27.81%
Pasok (soc) 4.68%
The River 6.05%
Total: 38.54%

Anti-Austerity (and Pro-No) 
Syriza 36.34%
Indep. Greeks 4.75%
KKE 5.47%
Golden Dawn 6.28%
Total: 52.84%

In addition, socialists and conservatives were ousted from power halfway through their terms of office for their compliant management of the crisis. Add to this that European creditors have threatened the Greeks with punitive action is they vote No, apparently unaware of the reverse psychology effect this will have.

The Yes camp hopes that the bank closure and capital controls of the past week will have brought many defiant Greeks to their senses, and back to the austerity camp; but the effect of this particular hardship may not be vastly greater than daily life on 40 percent of the population who live below the 2008 poverty level of 8,767 euros a year. Add the young, who have above 50 percent unemployment and 1.2mn unemployed people, most of them long-term, and the anti-austerity cohort has probably grown since January.

Some recent developments

Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has warned that a Greek exodus will cost taxpayers billions of euros they may not have budgeted for, according to Handelsblatt.

246 Greek academic economists urged their fellow Greeks to vote Yes. "We are already at the first stage of a very slippery process that, if not urgently reversed, will lead to a chaotic debt default and exit from the Eurozone," they say. But Nobel prize-winning economists Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz have encouraged them to break with austerity by voting No.

Former Greek premier Kostas Karamanlis also joined the Yes camp, though

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